Kiribati’s polls have closed, and the results are in. There won’t be a president for several weeks, but, regardless of the outcome, Australia will be hoping for a fresh start.
When parliament is formed, it must put forward at least three presidential nominations for another public election. Incumbent President Taneti Maamau was re-elected to parliament and is likely to seek to keep the presidency.
The Kiribati people voted, first and foremost, on issues affecting their daily lives, including climate threats and economic development needs. However, as Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has said, we are in a ‘permanent contest’ with China over influence in the Pacific. How governments are navigating that contest is increasingly affecting voters across the region.
The Australia–Kiribati bilateral relationship has been in decline, but the election will provide an opportunity for a reset. For the sake of the ongoing development assistance that Australia is hoping to provide our near region to ensure its stability, Canberra must find a way to move forward with any incoming President through more dialogue and greater transparency on our own activities, starting with an invitation to visit our capital at their earliest convenience. The relationship has been challenged by a series of disagreements that Maamau has aired publicly, asserting himself domestically and internationally. If he does return as president, Australia must do more to show we are listening to these concerns.
In 2020, Maamau’s party lost its majority of seats, but he returned for a second term as president based on a campaign that addressed local issues and steered clear, where possible, of concerns about cutting ties with Taiwan and the growing relationship with China. This year, shying away from geopolitics may be more difficult, as the people of Kiribati now find themselves with the Chinese paramilitary, the People’s Armed Police, on the ground in their small island nation.
The presence in Kiribati of the force (revealed only in February this year) concerns the Australian government, which has struggled to respond. The minister for international development and the Pacific, Pat Conroy, said there should be ‘no role’ for China in policing the Pacific islands and offered instead to send Australian police. But such broad comments could risk alienating Pacific countries by disregarding their sovereign decision-making. Australia should be more open about the real risks that come with Chinese police in the region, including their use in suppressing Chinese dissidents, collecting biodata and conducting mass surveillance.
Overenthusiastic and unsubstantiated posturing could jeopardise Australia’s relations in the region; Kiribati has recently shown reluctance to allow other forms of assistance from Australia. For example, it blocked support from the Pacific Media Assistance Scheme.
Maamau’s government signed a memorandum of understanding with Australia in February 2023 ‘nurturing cooperation’ across a broad range of sectors, including economic reform and maritime security. However, any talk of a stronger agreement or treaty has been put on ice. More recently, Maamau was quick to downplay any discussion of Kiribati signing a treaty similar to the Falepili Union between Australia and Tuvalu. A new government could see a shift in Kiribati’s approach to those larger agreements, but transparency and time for proper consultation across groups will remain the key.
Fortunately, Australia has been able to continue with the delivery of a new barracks, headquarters and radio system regardless of the tension. Even if the relationship has soured, Canberra understands that it’s important to continue to support lasting and meaningful development for the country.
Another point of tension is the breakdown of independence in Kiribati’s judicial system after Australian David Lambourne, a long-serving High Court judge in Kiribati, was removed and later deported. Some believe this move was meant to make the opposition’s life more difficult before the election.
Incumbent opposition leader Tessie Lambourne is the partner of David Lambourne. More importantly for the people of Kiribati, she is a former dedicated and decorated civil servant who has filled the role of secretary in many government departments and was Kiribati’s final ambassador to Taiwan before the switch to recognising the People’s Republic of China in 2019.
David Lambourne was removed in ‘proceedings that violated international standards’, according to a United Nations Human Rights special rapporteur, who also voiced concerns over Kiribati’s judicial independence. The change is part of a larger trend of declining public transparency.
Kiribati, like all Pacific island countries, is seeking to solidify its identity, values and place in the region and the world, and each country must navigate those waters in the way that makes most sense to it. Kiribati’s temporary withdrawal from the Pacific Islands Forum in 2022 forced the organisation to ensure that the country’s voice was heard. Similarly, Maamau’s public criticism of AUKUS boils down to resentment that Australia did not consult Kiribati. The criticism reminds partners that Kiribati wants to be seen as an equal and will do things its own way.
A good partner understands those concerns, and Australia has made positive steps to demonstrate that. Canberra will be hoping that it can use the presidential election as a chance to start afresh, even if it is with a returning Maamau. But Australia must also continue strong public consultations about initiatives and support and keep encouraging transparency from all governments and partners in the region, ensuring that the contest for influence doesn’t get in the way of helping our Pacific family.