New Caledonia is the most pressing issue in Pacific security right now. New Caledonia’s future is a black swan risk: waiting in plain sight, yet unknown to most.

In May 2024, New Caledonia erupted into violence and unrest after the French government changed local voting eligibility rules. What happens next could be a game changer for the Pacific region. 

As I detail in my report When China knocks at the door of New Caledonia, published by ASPI today, the Chinese Communist Party has been engaging in covert activities in New Caledonia over decades, targeting local elites and business figures. CCP influence will remain a significant factor in New Caledonian politics whatever the islands’ future. 

There is no evidence of the Chinese government’s direct involvement in the current unrest and violence. Even so, China has featured repeatedly in commentary about the New Caledonian riots despite no reports of Chinese businesses being targeted. 

In the first two weeks of looting and unrest, the French Government blocked the Chinese social media app TikTok (抖音) in New Caledonia. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said TikTok was banned ‘due to interference and manipulation of the platform, whose parent company is Chinese. The app is used as a medium for spreading disinformation on social networks, fed by foreign countries, and relayed by the rioters.’ 

Beijing has been quick to push back at any hint that it might be involved in the unrest. In June 2024, Global Times, a CCP mouthpiece, posted a scathing attack on Western coverage of the unrest, saying that the media were scaremongering about China as a ‘shadow’ behind the protests.  

Beijing has been noticeably circumspect in public commentary about the social unrest in New Caledonia. As my paper details, media accounts have also been extremely limited, which will reflect official guidance to “Follow the Xinhua line”.  

China has longstanding political, economic, and strategic interests in New Caledonia, and the careful rhetoric reflects these interests.  

A 1987 assessment by China’s foreign ministry is a prescient reminder that Beijing has long set its sights on New Caledonia as key to the strategic situation in the Pacific:

Once New Caledonia’s national independence movement is taken advantage of by a superpower, changes that are unfavourable to the United States will take place in the strategic balance in the South Pacific. On the other hand, if the United States supports New Caledonia’s national independence movement, it may spread to other islands and trust territories in the Pacific and encourage other peoples to start their own independence movement. This is what the United States would not like to see. 

New Caledonia was an important military and intelligence base for the allies in World War II, and it is crucial to France’s current security efforts across the Southwest Pacific. New Caledonia also has 25 percent of the world’s nickel resources. Over the last ten years, New Caledonia has become dependent on the Chinese market. 

As a result of the riots and unrest since May 2024, the New Caledonian economy is in ruins and its society is at a crossroads. One potential pathway could be closer relations with Beijing.  

In 2021, a report written for the New Caledonian independence group Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS), proposed that New Caledonia could become a ‘Djibouti of the Pacific’ and generate income by charging rent to foreign troops and hosting military bases from China and other interested states. FLNKS make up some of the key members of the current New Caledonian government. 

Would the New Caledonian government reach out to China to rebuild after the devastation of the riots? The risk is that New Caledonia will switch from one form of dependency to another. In the interviews I conducted in my paper, many New Caledonian leaders said they did not want that scenario. 

The violent unrest in New Caledonia shows no sign of ending. The rioters have caused an estimated €2.2 billion worth of damage. Hundreds of cars, homes and private businesses have been looted and burned. Nine civilians and two gendarmes have been killed. France has imposed emergency measures, deployed troops to New Caledonia’s ports and international airport, and sent an additional 500 police and gendarmes to support the existing 1800-strong force. UN human rights rapporteurs have expressed concerns about France’s repressive tactics.  

My report makes it clear that France, the EU, U.K., Australia, Japan, Singapore, Korea, New Zealand, the U.S. and the Pacific Island Forum should consider what role they can play in helping to diversify and rebalance the New Caledonian economy as a means of supporting greater resilience and autonomy and to help with the rebuild.  

Peaceful negotiations are required to end the social and political crisis. The stakes are too high to leave it all to fate.